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Risk Simulator

It is a powerful Excel add-in software used for applying simulation, forecasting, statistical analysis, decision trees, econometric analysis, and optimization in your existing Excel spreadsheet models. Risk Simulator was developed specifically to be extremely easy to use. For instance, running risk simulations is as simple as 1-2-3 (set an input, set an output, and run); and performing forecasting (i.e., Auto-econometrics, GARCH models, Stochastic Processes, Time-Series, Multivariate analysis, and so forth) relies on simple clicks in the software. Users are more focused on the analysis, reports, and numerical results.

Risk Simulator - Software

WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS?
How do you make critical business decisions? Do you consider the risks of your projects and decisions, or are you more focused on returns? Do you have a hard time trying to understand what risk is, let alone quantifying risk? Well, our Risk Simulator software will help you identify, quantify, and value risk in your projects and decisions.

RISK SIMULATOR is a powerful Excel add-in software used for applying simulation, forecasting, statistical analysis, and optimization in your existing Excel spreadsheet models. The software was developed specifically to be extremely easy to use. For instance, running a risk simulation is as simple as 1-2-3, set an input, set an output, and run. Performing forecasting can be as simple as two or three mouse clicks away and the software does everything for you automatically, complete with detailed reports, powerful charts and numerical results. It even comes in English, Spanish, Chinese and Japanese, with additional languages on their way.

If we have the technology to send spacecrafts half way across the solar system, why can’t we spend a little more time quantifying risk? Such technology already exists and Risk Simulator encapsulates these advanced methodologies into a simple and user-friendly tool. We have books, live training (Certification in Risk Management) seminars, training DVDs, consultants and free sample getting started videos in risk analysis and modeling available on our website.

Risk Simulator is also integrated with our other software including the Real Options Super Lattice Solver, Employee Stock Options Valuation Toolkit, Modeling Toolkit (over 800 Functions and 300 Models), ROV Modeler, ROV Optimizer, ROV Valuator, ROV Basel II Modeler, ROV Compiler, ROV Extractor and Evaluator, and ROV Dashboard. Please visit our website for more details.

Monte Carlo Simulation
45 Probability Distributions with easy-to-use interface, running Super Speed Simulation (thousands of trials in a few seconds) with Comprehensive Statistics and Reporting, Distributional Correlations with Copulas, Latin Hypercube and Monte Carlo Simulation, Truncation, Percentile Alternate Parameters and Percentile Fit, Linking capabilities, Multidimensional Simulations, Simulation Profiling, 6 random number generators, and Risk Simulator functions in Excel

Analytical Tools
Bootstrapping, Check Model, Cluster Segmentation, Comprehensive Reports, Data Extraction and Statistics Report, Data Import, Deseasonalization and Detrending, Detailed Data Diagnostics, Distributional Fitting (Single, Multiple, Percentile Fit), Distributional Probabilities (PDF, CDF, ICDF), Hypothesis Testing, Overlay Charts, Principal Component Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Statistical Analytics, Structural Breaks, Tornado and Spider Charts

Forecasting
Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, Basic Econometrics, Auto Econometrics, Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic, Cubic Spline, Custom Distributions, GARCH, J Curve, S Curve, Markov Chain, Maximum Likelihood, Multiple Regression, Neural Network, Nonlinear Extrapolation, Stochastic Processes, Time-Series Decomposition, Trendlines

Optimization
Static, Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization with Continuous, Discrete and Integer Decision Variables, Efficient Frontier, Genetic Algorithm, Linear and Nonlinear Optimization, Single Variable Goal Seek

  • WHAT'S NEW IN RISK SIMULATOR
    The following lists the new enhancements and tools available in the latest version of Risk Simulator, as well as enhancements from previous versions. Upgrades from versions 3.X, 4.X, 5.X, 6.X, or 2010.X require a small upgrade fee (email support@oslriskmanagement.com for additional information).

    General Enhancements in Risk Simulator:

    New Advanced Methods and Models:
  • GARCH Models: GARCH, GARCH-M, TGARCH-M, TGARCH, EGARCH, EGARCH-T, GJR GARCH, GJR TGARCH
  • MLE-LIMDEP (Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Limited Dependent Variables): Logit, Probit, Tobit
  • Data Deseasonalization
  • Data Detrending and Cyclicality Analysis
  • Principal Component Analysis
  • Structural Break Analysis
  • Checking model integrity
  • Trendline Forecasts (linear, nonlinear polynomial, power, logarithmic, exponential, moving average)
  • Stepwise Multiple Regression (forward, backward, correlation, forward-backward)
  • T-Copulas and Quasi-Normal Copula, Normal Copula for correlated simulations
  •  6 Random Number Generators:

  • ROV Advanced Subtractive Generator
  • Subtractive Random Shuffle Generator
  • Long Period Shuffle Generator
  • Portable Random Shuffle Generator
  • Quick IEEE Hex Generator
  • Basic Minimal Portable Generator)

  • Latin Hypercube Sampling (complements existing Monte Carlo Simulation)
  • Genetic Algorithm in optimization
  • Single Variable Goal Seek
  • Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasts
  • Neural Network Forecasts (linear, nonlinear logistic, hyperbolic tangent, and cosine)


ROV Decision Tree: ROV Decision Tree is used to create and value decision tree models. Additional advanced methodologies and analytics are also included: Decision Tree Models, Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Bayesian (Joint and Posterior Probability Updating), Expected Value of Information, MINIMAX, MAXIMIN, Risk Profiles.

Percentile Distributional Fitting: uses percentiles and optimization to find the best-fitting distribution.

  • Probability Distributions’ Charts and Tables: runs 45 probability distributions, their four moments, CDF, ICDF, PDF, charts, and overlay multiple distributional charts, and generates probability distribution tables.

    ROV BizStats: A new module called ROV BizStats, which is a standalone tool that can be used to run basic to advanced statistical analyses at very high speeds. This new module includes the following 130+ methods:

    Absolute Values, ANOVA: Randomized Blocks Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Single Factor Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Two Way Analysis, ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation, Autoeconometrics (Detailed), Autoeconometrics (Quick), Average, Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasting, Control Chart: C, Control Chart: NP, Control Chart: P, Control Chart: R, Control Chart: U, Control Chart: X, Control Chart: XMR, Correlation, Correlation (Linear, Nonlinear), Count, Covariance, Cubic Spline, Custom Econometric Model, Data Descriptive Statistics, Deseasonalize, Difference, Distributional Fitting, Exponential J Curve, GARCH, Heteroskedasticity, Lag, Lead, Limited Dependent Variables (Logit), Limited Dependent Variables (Probit), Limited Dependent Variables (Tobit), Linear Interpolation, Linear Regression, LN, Log, Logistic S Curve, Markov Chain, Max, Median, Min, Mode, Neural Network, Nonlinear Regression, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Goodness of Fit, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Independence, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Population Variance, Nonparametric: Friedman’s Test, Nonparametric: Kruskal-Wallis Test, Nonparametric: Lilliefors Test, Nonparametric: Runs Test, Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One Var), Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (Two Var), Parametric: One Variable (T) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Proportion, Parametric: Two Variable (F) Variances, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Dependent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Equal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Unequal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Proportions, Power, Principal Component Analysis, Rank Ascending, Rank Descending, Relative LN Returns, Relative Returns, Seasonality, Segmentation Clustering, Semi-Standard Deviation (Lower), Semi-Standard Deviation (Upper), Standard 2D Area, Standard 2D Bar, Standard 2D Line, Standard 2D Point, Standard 2D Scatter, Standard 3D Area, Standard 3D Bar, Standard 3D Line, Standard 3D Point, Standard 3D Scatter, Standard Deviation (Population), Standard Deviation (Sample), Stepwise Regression (Backward), Stepwise Regression (Correlation), Stepwise Regression (Forward), Stepwise Regression (Forward-Backward), Stochastic Processes (Exponential Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Geometric Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion with Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion), Structural Break, Sum, Time-Series Analysis (Auto), Time-Series Analysis (Double Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Double Moving Average), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter’s Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter’s Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Single Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Single Moving Average), Trend Line (Difference Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential), Trend Line (Linear Detrended), Trend Line (Linear), Trend Line (Logarithmic Detrended), Trend Line (Logarithmic), Trend Line (Moving Average Detrended), Trend Line (Moving Average), Trend Line (Polynomial Detrended), Trend Line (Polynomial), Trend Line (Power Detrended), Trend Line (Power), Trend Line (Rate Detrended), Trend Line (Static Mean Detrended), Trend Line (Static Median Detrended), Variance (Population), Variance (Sample), Volatility: EGARCH, Volatility: EGARCH-T, Volatility: GARCH, Volatility: GARCH-M, Volatility: GJR GARCH, Volatility: GJR TGARCH, Volatility: Log Returns Approach, Volatility: TGARCH, Volatility: TGARCH-M, Yield Curve (Bliss), and Yield Curve (Nelson-Siegel).

    11 Foreign Languages: Risk Simulator 2012 now supports 11 languages: English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Simplified Chinese, Traditional Chinese, Spanish and Russian, complete with the localized languages' user interface, user manuals, reports, examples, exercises, tools, charts, and more!

    Forecast Chart Global View: You can now toggle between global view and regular view on the forecast charts where all of the controls from the regular tabbed view are now available in a single comprehensive global view.

    Multiple Cell Copy/Paste: You can now copy and paste multiple cells with noncontiguous assumptions and forecasts.

    Distributional Analysis Tool: The ultra powerful Distributional Analysis tool now has a facelift where you can run PDF, CDF, ICDF and combinations of these on a data grid, copy the computed data, and view different chart types.

    Edit Correlation Tool: The Edit Correlation between input assumptions tool now supports an interactive visual correlation chart.

    Excel 2013, 2016 and WIN7/8/10: This new version supports Windows 7, 8, 10 - 32 and 64 bit versions, and Excel 2013, 2016 - 32 bit and 64 bit versions.

    Hands-on Exercises: This version comes with 140 pages of step-by-step hands-on exercises for running each of the techniques and tools in Risk Simulator and 103 pages of probability distribution details (describing the characteristics and nature of the 45 distributions available in Risk Simulator), complementing the 206-page detailed user manual (translated into 11 languages).

    Troubleshooter: The Troubleshooter tool is now integrated in the Start menu for Risk Simulator, where you can use this tool to obtain the status of Risk Simulator install (e.g., registry settings, COM settings, installation path), restore Risk Simulator if it is disabled, fix Excel security settings, obtain Hardware ID, and more.

    Minor Bug Fixes and Enhancements: This new version includes quicker report generation, scatter plot support in the Overlay Charts tool, simplified drop-list for seasonality selection in the Time Series Forecasting tool, more elegant looking Spider Charts, auto installation of licenses (if you upgrade from the same major version such as from 2012(A) to 2012(B), where the previous license will now be automatically transferred to the new version; this does not apply if you are upgrading from a different major version such as from version 5.X to 2010.X), and many other small enhancements and fixes.

    General Enhancements in Risk Simulator Version 5.4 and beyond:

    Super Speed Simulation: This new capability allows you to run simulations at super speeds (50X to 500X faster depending on the model and your processor speed!) by first analyzing your Excel model and then compiling the model into pure mathematical code and running the simulations at very high speeds. Certain models that cannot be compiled will be run at regular speed (e.g., models with VBA functions and macros, links to external data or files, unsupported or wrong functions, and errors in the model).

    Turbo Speed Analytics: We added a new high-speed engine in our forecast methods and analytical tools. Same analyses results as in previous versions but they now run 10X to 30X faster depending on the analysis and your processor speed!

    Multiple Excel Versions. Users with both Excel 2007 and Excel 2003/XP loaded can now easily and seamlessly run Risk Simulator on any Excel versions in a single computer. There is now an Excel version switching tool that allows you to determine which version of Excel to start Risk Simulator with.

    Commented Cells. You can turn cell comments on or off in Risk Simulator's Options menu, to decide if you wish to show cell comments on all input assumptions, output forecasts and decision variables.

    Right-Click Full Menus. You can now access all of Risk Simulator's tools and menus using a mouse right click.

    Multiple Models Econometrics. You can now enter in a single equation or multiple equations to run basic econometrics modeling and automatically create tens to hundreds of iterations of the same model through predefined variables as well as shift the data over time.

    Super Speed Simulation in Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization. Simply click on the Advanced button when you run Optimization and select super speed simulation.

    Revised Icons in Excel 2010: Users with Excel 2010/2007 will see a completely reworked icon toolbar that is more intuitive and user friendly. There will be four sets of icons that fit most screen resolutions (1280 x 760 and above).

    Enhanced Forecast Charts: The forecast charts now have additional graphical enhancements.

    Truncated Statistics. If you perform some data filtering in the forecast chart (Data Filter section in the Options tab), the Statistics tab will show the updated statistics based on the truncated data set. If you do not truncate the forecast data, the full dataset’s statistics will be shown as usual.

    Chart Controls (3D/Tilt/Move, Colors, Fitting, PDF/CDF). This is a new tab within the forecast chart whereby you can modify the existing forecast charts including performing distributional fitting on the forecast data set, creating overlay PDF/CDF/ICDF charts, overlaying scatter charts, and changing chart options (chart types, 3D rotation, colors, zoom, tilt, number of decimals, minimum and maximum values to chart on the axes, title name, and many other options, including the ability to save the revised settings and print the chart in various formats).

    Auto Econometrics: This new forecasting tool is used to run hundreds and even thousands of model combinations and permutations using smart heuristics to determine the best-fitting model for your data, by testing linear, nonlinear, lagged, lead, interacting, nested, and other models. This tool is the counterpart to the ROV Risk Modeler software’s detailed autoeconometrics, which is capable of running hundreds of thousands to a few million models on large datasets.

    Basic Econometrics: The existing forecasting tool is now enhanced with new capabilities including the ability to create new variables and functions such as TIME (a linear time-series variable), DIFF (first differencing the time-series data set), RESIDUAL (data from the error term of a forecast equation you specify), RATE (first order ratio of time-series data), and FORECAST (data from the error term of a forecast equation you specify).

    Trendline Analysis: This new tool runs the most common trendlines including linear, nonlinear, exponential, power, moving average, and polynomial models. It returns a series of charts as well as the goodness-of-fit statistics for each model.

    Overlay Charts: This new charting tool is used to compare multiple assumptions and/or forecast variables, by plotting them in a time-series or cross-sectional overlay manner. This allows you to quickly view the similarities and differences in the assumptions and forecasts in easy to read charts.

    Segmentation Clustering: This tool is capable of segregating and clustering or grouping a large set of data into different natural statistical groups by applying some smart algorithms and heuristics.

    Create Forecast Statistics Table: This new tool can create reports of just the key forecast statistics (e.g., mean, median mode, standard deviation, variance, coefficient of variation, skew, kurtosis) as well as confidence levels and probabilities of the output forecast variables you select. The result is a comparison table listing the selected statistics across multiple forecasts.

    Flexible Licensing: There are several new enhancements to our licensing:

    Vista users with the user access control turned on or limited users without administrative logins will still be able to enjoy the full functionalities of Risk Simulator by being able to install the software licenses without doing any additional work. To install a new license file you received, simply start Excel, click on Risk Simulator, License, Install License and browse to the license file you are provided to activate the software permanently or for a longer trial period).

    Risk Simulator now has the capability of turning on or off certain functionalities to allow you to customize your risk analysis experience. For instance, if you are only interested in the forecasting tools in Risk Simulator, you may be able to obtain a special license that activates only the forecasting tools and leaves the other modules deactivated, thereby saving some costs on the software. The four modules that can be turned on or off are Simulation, Forecasting, Optimization and Analytical Tools. In addition, specific tools in each module can also be turned on or off. This customization is only available for site licenses of more than 10 computers.

    Advanced Forecasting Models: Together with the new forecasting tools and techniques in version 2012, Risk Simulator now has the following forecasting methodologies:

  • ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)
  • Auto ARIMA
  • Auto Econometrics
  • Basic Econometrics
  • Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic
  • Cubic Spline
  • GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)
  • J-Curves
  • Markov Chains
  • Maximum Likelihood
  • Neural Network
  • Nonlinear Extrapolation
  • Regression
  • S-Curves
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Time-Series Analysis
  • Trendlines

    General Enhancements in Risk Simulator Version 4 and beyond:

    Excel RS Functions: You can now access Risk Simulator functions within Excel by clicking on Insert Function anywhere in your spreadsheet and scrolling to the functions starting with RS. Here, you can set assumptions as well as obtain the forecast statistics of a forecast variable. For instance, you can run the RSAssumptionNormal function to set a normal distribution assumption to a cell, or RSForecastStatistic to obtain the statistics of a forecast cell. In the set assumption forecast, you can set the placeholder or temporary value that is seen before and after a simulation is run (Value), the name of the assumption (Variable Name), and the parameters of the distribution (e.g., Mean, Standard Deviation), as well as other items such as percentile values, correlations, as well as min and max boundaries. For the results, you can also use RSForecastStatistic(A1, “Percentile99.9”) to obtain the 99.90 percentile value of cell A1, where this cell has a forecast parameter set. The functions that can be used include: “PercentileXXX”, “CertaintyXXX”, “Mean”, “Median”, StandardDeviation”, “Variance”, “Skewness”, and “Kurtosis”.

    Right-Click in Excel: You can now use the mouse right-click to access quick Risk Simulator items in Excel, such as set assumptions, set forecasts, and run simulation.

    Percentiles and Conditional Means: In stochastic optimization, additional statistics are now available, including Percentiles as well as Conditional Means, such as obtaining the mean as long as it is > A or < A, which are critical in computing conditional value at risk measures.

    Coefficient of Variation (CV): The mean absolute deviation value is now changed to CV in the forecast chart’s statistics, where CV is the standard deviation divided by the mean, sometimes used as a proxy for volatility, and useful as a relative measure of risk, in comparing different sized projects, as well as being used as a risk-to-return ratio.

    Scenario Analysis: This new tool is used to compute various scenarios in your model, by changing one or two input variables at a time, for a range of inputs, to determine the effects on the output.

    Powerful Tornado: Additional checklists and options are now available, as are a more stable and powerful Tornado analysis (whereby you can now run Tornado across multiple worksheets), global settings (change one setting such as testing 10% upside and downside, and you can control if individual precedents are changed or the entire set of precedents are changed), and highlighting or ignoring possible integer values (sometimes integer values are used as flags in a model and this option helps in identifying potential precedents you may wish to ignore in running the Tornado). Worksheet names are now included in the sensitivity tables for easy identification, and other enhancements are included.

    Efficient Frontier: This optimization tool is capable of running multiple sets of optimizations with changing constraints. You can access this tool through the Set Constraints dialog box in optimization. This technique can be run in concurrence with static, dynamic and stochastic optimization.

    Re-enable Risk Simulator: This tool is now available on the Start | Programs | Real Options Valuation | Risk Simulator menu. It allows you to re-enable the software if Windows or Excel temporarily disables the software (this can occur if there is a power outage when you are running a simulation, if you get a virus or Trojan horse on your computer, if you accidentally delete some critical files, and so forth).

    Multiphasic Optimization: The module now is equipped with a Multiphasic Optimization and a test for Local versus Global Optimum in the “Advanced” options button (available when you run an optimization). These two new features, when used together with the existing advanced features, allow the user to have better control over how the optimization is run, and increases the accuracy and dependency of the results.

    Statistical Analysis Tool: Select the data you wish to analyze, including the headers, and start this tool (located at Risk Simulator | Tools | Statistical Analysis), and the following analyses will be available:
  • Descriptive statistics, including all 4 moments of the distribution as well as other confidence measures.
  • Distributional fitting, to test if the data set can be fitted to any distributions.
  • Hypothesis test to verify if the data are statistically significantly similar or different than a specific value.
  • Nonlinear extrapolation to test if the data, a time-series, is nonlinear in nature.
  • Normality test to see if the data set is statistically close to a normal distribution. This is an important statistical character because hypotheses tests as well as other modeling techniques require the normality assumption.
  • Stochastic parameter estimations, to find the input parameters for a random walk, mean-reverting process, or jump-diffusion process, and to decide if the variations explained are sufficient to justify the use of the stochastic process forecast.
  • Autocorrelation tests to see if the history of the time-series data can be used to predict the future.
  • Trend analysis to test if the data set follows a linear time-trend and what the level of predictability is.
  • Time-series forecasting, to test for the baseline shifts, trends, and seasonality effects of the time-series data.

Advanced Data Diagnostic Tool: Select the data you wish to analyze, including the headers, and start this tool (located at Risk Simulator | Tools | Diagnostic Tool), and the following: analyses are available:

  • Heteroskedasticity.
  • Multicollinearity.
  • Micronumerosity.
  • Nonlinearity.
  • Outliers.
  • Autocorrelation.
  • Partial Autocorrelation.
  • Distributive Lag.
  • Normality and Sphericity.
  • Nonstationarity.
  • Stochastic Characteristics.
  • Linear and Nonlinear Correlations.
  • Variance Inflation Factors.
  • Visual Charts.

These tests are vital before starting any types of forecasting or data analysis procedures. Each test comes complete with an easy-to-understand detailed report so that it does not take a trained econometrician or statistician to understand and interpret the results.

Maximum Likelihood: This is available at (Risk Simulator | Forecasting | Maximum Likelihood) whereby maximum likelihood iterative and internal optimization procedures are used to model binary response variables (the dependent variable is binary, taking on the values of 0 or 1). This is a key discriminant analysis with multiple uses (e.g., determining if patients will develop cancer given some characteristics such as age, cigarettes smoked, blood pressure; or to determine if a credit line or person will default on a loan given the company’s assets, asset volatility, or the person’s age, education level, years at a job, etc).

Multi-Language Support: We have multiple language support, with English (USA), Chinese (Simplified), Spanish, and Japanese, with forthcoming editions with additional languages. Users can switch between languages midway while working on their models by simply clicking on the Risk Simulator and Languages menu, and restarting Excel.

Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0/3.0: We have completely upgraded our source code to work seamlessly with Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0/3.0. This translates to higher speed and compatibility with newer computers.

Other Minor Updates:


a. Dynamic Sensitivity Charts are now capable of taking both cell names and cell addresses.


b. Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization routines now support:
Conditional Means and Semi-Standard Deviations for CVar computations

c. Updated examples to showcase the use of Efficient Frontier analysis and multiple models econometrics


d. Updated Japanese user manual e. Updated language edits and corrections in Spanish reports and Spanish user interface


f. Online resources menu inside Risk Simulator for quick and easy access at your fingertip

Windows 7, 8, or 10 (32 and 64 bits)
Excel 2010, 2013, or 2016 (32 and 64 bit)
Microsoft .NET 2.0, 3.0, 3.5 or later
650MB Hard Drive space
Administrative Rights to install software

MAC OS users can run the software as long as they have Bootcamp, Virtual Machine, or Parallels

TRIAL AND ACADEMIC VERSIONS
Risk Simulator can be downloaded immediately from our website with a default 10 day trial license. Our philosophy is you get to try before you buy. Once you use it, we are convinced you will fall in love with the simplicity and the power of the tool, and it will become an indispensible part of your modeling toolbox. We also have academic licenses for full time professors teaching risk analysis (and their students) or other associated courses using Risk Simulator or our other software products. Contact admin@realoptionsvaluation.com for details.

TRAINING AND CONSULTING
Advanced analytical tools such as the Risk Simulator software are built to be easy to use but may get the analyst in trouble if used inappropriately. Sufficient theoretical understanding coupled with pragmatic application experience is vital; therefore, training is critical.

Our Risk Analysis course is a two-day seminar focused on hands-on computer-based software training, with topics covering the basics of risk and uncertainty, using Monte Carlo simulation (pitfalls and due diligence), and all of the detailed methods in forecasting and optimization.

We also have a Real Options for Analysts course for the analysts who want to immediately begin applying strategic real options in their work, but lack the hands-on experience with real options analytics and modeling. This two-day course covers how to set up real options models, apply real options, and solve real options problems using simulation, closed-form mathematics, and binomial and multinomial lattices using the Real Options SLS software.

The Certified in Risk Management (CRM) seminar is a four-day hands-on class that covers the materials on our Risk Analysis and Real Options for Analysts courses and geared towards the CRM certification provided by the International Institute of Professional Education and Research (AACSB member and eligible for 30 PDU credits with the PMI).

Our Risk Analysis for Senior Managers is a one day course specially designed for senior executives, where we will review case studies in risk management from 3M, Airbus, Boeing, GE, and many others. It provides an executive overview of risk analysis, strategic real options, portfolio optimization, forecasting and risk concepts without the technical details.

Also available are other customized decision, valuation and risk analysis courses with an emphasis on on-site trainings customized to your firm’s exact needs based on your business cases and models). Consulting services are available, including the framing of risk analysis problems, simulation, forecasting, real options, risk analytics, model building, decision analysis, integrated OEM and software customization.

What are the system requirements for installing Risk Simulator?

The system requirements are:

  • Windows XP, Vista (32 and 64 bit), or Windows 7 (32 and 64 bit)
  • Microsoft Excel XP, 2003, 2007, or 2010 (32 bit)
  • 1GB RAM Minimum (2 GB minimum recommended)
  • 350 MB Hard Drive
  • Administrative Rights to install software
  • Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0, 3.0, 3.5 or later
  • MAC OS users will require either Virtual Machine or Parallels running Microsoft Excel

Try our Troubleshooter tool to see if your system is correctly configured with all the prerequisites.

How do I install the software?

Make sure that you have administrative rights to install the software, and that your system requirements match or exceed those required in Item 1 above. In addition, make sure you have .NET Framework 2.0, 3.0, 3.5 or later already installed on your computer. Then, simply download the trial or full version of the software, double click on the exe file, and follow the instructions. Make sure to first uninstall any older versions of Risk Simulator before attempting to install a new version.

How long will my trial version last?

The trial version will last for 10 days before the license expires. You will be unable to use the software unless you purchase a full license or contact us for an extended trial license (you will need to send us the Hardware ID of the computer where you installed Risk Simulator).

How do I obtain and install the new license I purchased?

Simply install Risk Simulator, start Excel, and click on Risk Simulator and select License and you can see an 16 to 20 digit Hardware ID that is specifically generated for your computer (we locate the serial numbers from 5 to 8 hardware components of your computer and apply our encryption algorithm to generate this unique ID specific for your computer). E-mail support@oslriskmanagement.com your 11 to 20 digit Hardware ID number and we will e-mail you a permanent license file. Simply copy the license file we send you to your computer, start Excel, click on Risk Simulator and License, then click on Install License. Browse to the location and select the license file we e-mailed you and click OK. Restart Excel and you are now permanently licensed to use the software.

Can Risk Simulator work on international operating systems?

The current version of Risk Simulator 2012 works well in foreign operating systems. In fact, Risk Simulator 2012 and Real Options SLS 2012 are now available in English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Spanish, Simplified Chinese, Traditional Chinese, Russian!

Why does Risk Simulator not start when Excel starts when in the past it used to work correctly?

Sometimes, if Excel freezes or has some errors due to opening a corrupt Excel file or computer instability, Excel automatically disables all add-ins. Sometimes, it is a hard disable (for serious problems) or soft disable (for less serious issues). This is an Excel security issue and not a Risk Simulator software issue. You can download and run the Risk Simulator Troubleshooter Tool and click on FIX ALL to fix all Excel issues as well as to run diagnostics on your system. You can also perform these fixes manually as discussed below:

  • To re-enable an add-in that has been hard disabled by a Microsoft Office 2003 application, on the Help menu, click About Microsoft Office, click Disabled Items, select the mscoree.dll add-in for Risk Simulator and click Enable.
  • To re-enable an add-in that has been hard disabled by Excel 2007/2010, in Excel 2007/2010, click the Microsoft Office Button (top left corner of Excel), click Excel Options, Add-ins. In the Manage drop-down list box at the bottom, click Disabled Items, and then click Go. Select Risk Simulator and click Enable, then click Close.
  • To re-enable an add-in that has been soft disabled by Excel 2007/2010, click the Microsoft Office Button (top left corner of Excel), Excel Options, Add-ins. In the Manage drop-down list box at the bottom, click COM Add-ins, and click Go. In the COM Add-Ins dialog box, select the check box next to the disabled Risk Simulator add-in, and click OK.
  • To re-enable an add-in that has been soft disabled by Excel 2003, on the View menu, point to Toolbars, and then click Customize. Click the Commands tab. In the Categories box, click Tools. In the Commands box, select COM Add-Ins and drag it to a toolbar. Click Close. On the toolbar, click COM Add-Ins. Select the check box next to the disabled Risk Simulator add-in and click OK.
  • Your Excel settings may be set to high security, which disables everything that links to Excel. To fix this in Excel 2003 or Excel XP, simply start Excel, click on Tools, Macro, Security, Trusted Publishers and make sure to check/select "Trust all installed add-ins and templates" and restart Excel. To fix this in Excel 2007/2010, start Excel, click on OFFICE icon (top left corner), Excel Options, Trust Center, Trust Center Settings, Add-Ins, and uncheck all 3 options and restart Excel.
  • There is also another possibility why Risk Simulator does not start with Excel. This happens when you have too many Add-Ins installed and some of them have altered the Excel startup behavior. For example, look at the Excel installation path and see if you can spot a file called Excel.exe.config, that is:

Excel XP C:\Program Files\Microsoft Office\OFFICE10\EXCEL.EXE.config
Excel 2003: C:\Program Files\Microsoft Office\OFFICE11\EXCEL.EXE.config
Excel 2007: C:\Program Files\Microsoft Office\OFFICE12\EXCEL.EXE.config
Excel 2010: C:\Program Files\Microsoft Office\OFFICE14\EXCEL.EXE.config

If so, one of your software add-ins has altered Excel. We suggest you make a backup of this file to a different location and delete this file in the Office folder above. Then, uninstall and reinstall Risk Simulator and it should start normally. You will need to uninstall and reinstall because Excel had been changed.

Why does RS sometimes not start when double-clicking an XLS file?

This happens because some software (e.g., Microsoft Outlook's Auto Previewer) holds an invisible Excel instance hostage (so that it can quickly start Excel to auto preview e-mail XLS attachments). You can either turn off Auto Preview in Outlook; open an XLS file by first starting Excel and clicking on File, Open, and not double click on an XLS file; or make sure Excel is already closed, then Ctrl+Alt+Delete and force the invisible Excel instance to end (in Processes tab, select Excel, End Process).

Resolution Issues

In WIN7 and Vista, users have the option to change the screen resolutions by “zooming in/out” and not just using a regular resolution change. When changing resolutions the regular approach (e.g., changing from 1280 x 800 to 1080 x 680) will not affect ROV software look and feel. However, using the zoom function does mess up some visuals (this is true of all software out there, and Windows actually even provides a warning message explaining this). The first two figures illustrate some effects of this zoom view.
Solution: Click on Start > Control Panel > Appearance and Personalization > Display and you see the user interface (see the third figure below). Change the view back to “Smaller 100% (Default)” then log-off and log-on to take effect and the RS/SLS software will display normally and correctly.

Kaspersky Antivirus and Internet Security 2010

Kaspersky Internet Security software sometimes interferes with the proper functioning of some Risk Simulator tools. The symptoms include getting error messages when running forecasting methods or not being able to get reports created. There is a very simple configuration you need to turn on in Kaspersky that will fix this problem. Click here to download a more detail instructions file. Keep Excel open and running. Start Kaspersky Internet Antivirus either from the Start Programs location or double-click the icon at the bottom right of your screen. Click on the following: My Protection >> Systems and Applications >> Application Control >> Options: Threats and Exclusions >> Exclusions: Settings… >> Trusted Applications >> Add >> add Microsoft Excel here* >> make sure the Do Not Monitor Application Activity option is selected * click on Applications >> Microsoft Excel, or click Browse to the program location where Excel.exe is located such as C:\Program Files\Microsoft Office \OfficeX\Excel.exe

Additional Information

RS

Expertise

Real Options Valuations and his CEO/Chairman Dr. Johnathan Mun are the software’s creator. These products including consulting and training activities have delivered and implemented in many Fortune 500 firms (from 3M, Airbus, and Boeing to GE and Motorola) and the government (Department of Defense, State and Federal Agencies, Central Banks, Regulators) on risk analysis, valuation, and real options. Dr. Johnathan Mun and his worldwide collaborators (risk managers, specialists and researchers) have written many books and peer-reviewed papers on the risk management and decision making, including Real Options Analysis: Tools and Techniques, 1st and 2nd Edition (Wiley Finance, 2002, 2005); Real Options Analysis Course: Business Cases (Wiley Finance, 2003); Applied Risk Analysis: Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business (Wiley, 2003); Valuing Employee Stock Options Under 2004 FAS 123 (Wiley Finance, 2004); Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting and Optimization (Wiley, 2006); Advanced Analytical Models: 800 Functions and 300 Models from Basel II to Wall Street and Beyond (Wiley 2008); The Banker’s Handbook on Credit Risk: Implementing Basel II (Elsevier Academic Press 2008); and others. Real Options Valuation, Inc. develops advanced analytical software products and IT solutions, consulting, and training services in a joint venture with OSL Risk Management, Ltd.