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Forecasting Key Variables Using Univariate Time Series: The Samurai Way

Forecasting Key Variables Using Univariate Time Series: The Samurai Way

Free Webinar (WebEx)

Estimate key variables from the day-to-day company business by using Risk Simulator ® (one of the best and easy-to-use Excel add-in software for Risk Management, Econometrics and Forecasting).


At the end of the training, you will have enough information to forecast key variables ana analyse company trends, like Sales, Inventories, Expenses, Cash Flows, Commodities prices, FX rates, among other key variables

Implement forecasting techniques (i.e.,Exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters, Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, among others), by applying complex models in a user-friendly environment using Risk Simulator®

Key Speaker - Dr. Elvis Hernandez-Perdomo

Director of OSL Risk Management with over sixteen years of experience in risk management. Formerly a Central Banker's Economist and Senior Executive Consultant/Trainer at Real Options Valuations Inc. He has participated in several international consulting projects in Latin America, Portugal, Spain, U.S., and the UK, from large companies to SMEs.

PhD in Finance (University of Hull UK) and a PhD in Engineering Science, MSc. in Finance and MSc. in Statistics and Operational Research, with consulting/research interests in Risk Management, Corporate Governance, Decision Analysis, Project Management, Corporate Finance, and Real Options; Certified in Quantitative Risk Management (CQRM), and with academic articles published in international peer-review journals in reliability systems, central banking, engineering, risk analysis, uncertainty, among other aspects.

  • How can we forecast key variables associated with company performance?
  • What are time series?
  • Types of time series models. The best fit of the model
  • The use of Auto ARIMA from Risk Simulator® software
  • Some example: models and estimations
  • Estimation and prediction error

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